Samples & Methodology
Every sample below is a complete, unedited Mispillion report - the same pipeline, the same indices, the same precinct-level depth you receive when you order. We build them on real Delaware structure - a real House district, a real Senate district, the real statewide map - then lay fictional data over the top, so we're not publishing a sitting member's file, or a real office's analysis, for free. Everything you see is real except the numbers.
Political Research is our productized line - the samples below download in full. The other three lines are bespoke; pick one to see what it covers.
Sample Reports - A Delaware House District
House · Snapshot
The fast read: top-line SLVI/SCOVI/III breakdown, the district's personal incumbency edge, the precinct partisan lean map, and a ranked target list - everything you need to decide whether the full Brief is worth ordering, in three pages.
View full sample →House · Intelligence Brief
The full workup: five cycles of election history, the complete SLVI/SCOVI/III breakdown, every precinct mapped for partisan lean and demographics, an economic profile, and a ranked GOTV target table telling you exactly where field dollars pay off.
View full sample →A Republican holds a Republican-leaning seat comfortably - the kind of district a national rater would wave off as "safe." Our indices tell a different story. The legislative vote has drifted toward the Democrats for five straight cycles, quietly eating into the personal-vote cushion the incumbent has always counted on. The seat isn't in danger today. But the insulation is eroding on a measurable trajectory - and a campaign that sees that three cycles early is the one that's ready when the seat finally turns. SLVI: 45.2% D. SCOVI: 49.0% D. III: -3.8 and closing (D+3.6 across five contested cycles).
This sample is built on the real structure of a Delaware House district - genuine precinct counts, real methodology, the actual index engine - with a fictional identity laid over it. Every figure is synthetic and no real district, incumbent, or election result is represented; "House District 42" is a deliberately fictional number (Delaware has 41 real House seats). Report depth scales with the size of the district you order.
Sample Reports - A Delaware State Senate District
Delaware's Senate seats don't nest inside House districts, so we run the index on the Senate contest itself - Senate SLVI is the Senate race, measured on Senate lines. Same three indices, same precinct depth, a different chamber.
Senate · Snapshot
The three-page decision tool for a Senate seat: the district's natural lean, the incumbent's personal margin over that baseline, the precinct partisan-lean map, and a ranked target list - the fast read before you commit to the full Brief.
View full sample →Senate · Intelligence Brief
The full Senate workup: multi-cycle history on the Senate line, the complete SLVI/SCOVI/III breakdown, every precinct mapped for partisan lean and demographics, an economic profile, and a ranked field-target table.
View full sample →A Democrat holds a Senate seat that is barely blue on paper - a natural lean of just D+1.0, the kind of seat one bad cycle from flipping. But the incumbent runs four points ahead of that baseline, winning D+5.0, and that personal cushion is the whole game. It's what keeps a coin-flip district comfortably in the column - and it's exactly what vanishes the day the seat opens, when the district snaps back toward even and becomes a genuine tossup. Our indices put a number on that cushion and show which way it's trending, so you're building the bench three cycles before the open-seat scramble instead of scrambling into it. District lean: D+1.0. 2024 result: D+5.0. Incumbency insulation: +4.0.
Built on the real structure of a Delaware Senate district with a fictional identity laid over it. Every figure is synthetic and no real district, incumbent, or election result is represented; "Senate District 22" and "Jane Doe" are deliberately fictional (Delaware has 21 real Senate seats). Report depth scales with the size of the district you order.
Sample Report - A Statewide Constitutional Office
The statewide product runs the same engine on a row office - Attorney General, Auditor, Treasurer, and the rest - where the district is the entire state and the sub-geography is the precinct. It answers where the base, the persuadable turf, and the turnout opportunities are, and - the part no level-only map can show - which way the ground is moving.
Statewide · Constitutional Office
The statewide product, shown as an Attorney General report: the office's two-party terrain at precinct resolution, how far it runs ahead of the party's slate baseline, down-ballot roll-off, and the Erosion & Opportunity layer - a momentum map, ranked precinct hotspots, and a regional targeting map that shows exactly where the coalition is eroding and where it's emerging.
View full sample →A statewide constitutional office sits at a competitive 52% two-party Democratic, and the officeholder runs about two points ahead of the party's slate baseline - a real personal edge. But the coalition underneath is moving, and in opposite directions. The suburban strongholds that deliver the margin are eroding: the vote looks flat, but the voter rolls are sliding the other way - the early warning that leads a vote shift by a cycle or two. Meanwhile a coastal region that's still red on the board is trending in hard on both the vote and the registration - an emerging opportunity a level-only map would miss entirely. The report maps all of it to the precinct and hands you a ranked defend-and-expand target list. Statewide: 52.0% D. Office Premium: +1.8. The coastal opening: Republican on the board today, but +3.6 and the rolls moving Democratic.
Illustrative Attorney General report built on Delaware's real precinct geometry with synthetic vote and voter-registration figures - it demonstrates the product's format and analysis on invented numbers, so no real election result or analysis is published. Census demographics shown in the report are real. Every figure that would identify a real result is fictional.
Proprietary Indices
Anyone can tell you who won last time. We tell you why they won, and whether it holds.
Index 01
What the district actually does in races for this seat - the Democratic two-party share in contests for the office itself, averaged across every contested cycle in recent history. This is the real result on the board, incumbent and all. Not a model, not a projection: the performance history the seat has actually produced.
Index 02
What the district would do with no incumbent on the ballot - no name recognition, no constituent goodwill, just raw party preference. SCOVI reads the Democratic two-party share across a basket of statewide constitutional offices, stripping the legislative race out entirely. This is the district's partisan DNA, the number the seat reverts to the moment it opens.
Index 03
The gap between the two - SLVI minus SCOVI - and the number that does the real work. It tells you whether the person in the seat is running ahead of the district's natural lean (insulated) or behind it (exposed), and exactly how big that personal cushion is. The companion trajectory shows which way it's moving, so you see erosion coming while it's still a trend and not yet an upset.
The Statewide Layer
A statewide row office has no single legislative race, so the constitutional product decomposes SCOVI to the office itself and adds the movement layer that makes the map actionable.
Statewide 01
The Office Index is SCOVI decomposed to a single office - the Democratic two-party share of one constitutional race, precinct by precinct. The Office Premium is how far that office runs ahead of, or behind, the party's slate baseline: the III idea applied to a statewide officeholder, so you can see the personal edge that a raw share hides.
Statewide 02
Two independent signals of movement - the same-cadence vote swing and the voter-registration trend - read together, precinct by precinct. Where they agree, the movement is confirmed; where the rolls lead the vote, you get the earliest warning there is. It resolves into a targeting map: where a coalition is eroding (defend) and where it's emerging (expand), named region by named region.
Our Data Foundation
Every number in every report comes out of one disciplined pipeline - the same one that produced the samples above. Certified election returns reallocated to current district lines, Census demographics crosswalked at the block level, ACS economic estimates for context, and - for the statewide product - the state's monthly voter-registration rolls, the leading signal behind the erosion layer. It runs identically whether you're a Democrat or a Republican, whether the district is safe or a tossup. No analyst thumb on the scale, no cherry-picked cycles, no party-favoring adjustments. The methodology is the product.
Step 01
Certified precinct-level returns (VEST 2016-2020, MEDSL 2022-2024), reallocated onto today's district lines through population-weighted areal interpolation across Census blocks - so past elections are measured against the seat as it exists now, not as it used to be.
Step 02
Census TIGER geometry and block-level counts crosswalked to current boundaries, giving you Voting Age Population and Citizen VAP precinct by precinct - the denominators your turnout math actually depends on.
Step 03
American Community Survey estimates - median household income, poverty, educational attainment, housing - each set against the statewide average so you can see at a glance how this district differs from the state around it.
Step 04
The state's monthly registration rolls, aggregated to the district and to named regions, then read as an annualized net-partisan trend - the forward signal that leads the vote and powers the statewide product's Erosion & Opportunity layer.
Why you won't find this anywhere else
Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and the other national names track competitiveness at the federal level, where the money justifies building proprietary trend data. Nobody does it downballot. There are thousands of state House and Senate seats and a full slate of statewide row offices, and no one is running SLVI/SCOVI-grade trend analysis on them one district at a time. That's not an oversight you can wait out - it's a permanent gap in the market, and it's the one Mispillion was built to fill.
Every figure in every paid report is drawn from the public record - certified election returns, Census and ACS data, voter-registration rolls, campaign finance filings, and legislative roll calls - and computed the same way for every district, regardless of party. We report what the record shows and how we measured it. We don't editorialize, and we don't pad a report to hit a page count; depth scales with the size of the district and the length of the officeholder's record. The samples on this page are the sole exception: they run the real pipeline on fictional data so we can show you the product without publishing a real member's file or a real office's analysis for free.
If there's a specific angle you want measured in more depth, tell us at request time and we'll scope it. See Products →
Request a Report